Here we articulate the implied theory of change (ToC) underpinning the design and operation of CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora), based on an analysis of the Convention’s documented evolution. We use this as a framework to critically evaluate the effectiveness of the Convention, with respect to its stated aims, using a range of theoretical and empirical insights. Although achieving success in various ways, CITES is proving ineffective at deterring illegal and/or unsustainable exploitation of many listed species for international trade, which we attribute to implementation and compliance issues and the Convention’s design, including a principal focus on deterrence through state-led law enforcement. Informed by this analysis we develop a modified ToC which could support more effective implementation of CITES. 

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Challender DWS, ’t Sas-Rolfes M, Broad S and Milner-Gulland EJ (2025) A theory of change to improve conservation outcomes through CITES. Front. Ecol. Evol. 13:1425267. doi: 10.3389/fevo.2025.1425267 https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2025.1425267

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    Daniel Challender

  • Dr Michael 't Sas-Rolfes

    AWEI Research Fellow
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    E.J. Milner-Gulland

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    Steven Broad